---
title: "Watch: The AI Buildout, Earnings Surge, and Rate Reality"
description: Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill open August with a look at how far AI adoption has come, why semiconductor volatility keeps setting records, and what a weakening US dollar means for global positioning. This episode also covers The AI Buildout, Earnings Surge, and Rate Reality.
image: https://big3planning.com/hubfs/ChatGPT%20Image%20Aug%2019%2c%202026%2c%2004_11_03%20PM.png
---

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 2026 Aug 21

# Watch: The AI Buildout, Earnings Surge, and Rate Reality

Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill cover the data behind three of the most consequential market stories heading into the second half of 2026: AI capital spending and adoption, corporate earnings and valuations, and where interest rates are actually headed.

In this episode:

- Major tech firm CapEx approaching $160 billion and corporate investment overtook consumer spending for the first time ever
- AI adoption is spreading from large enterprises to businesses with fewer than 10 employees

- NVIDIA sits at the center of a $500 billion Wall Street backstop for circular AI infrastructure financing
- S&P 500 earnings growth at its strongest first half since 2021, accelerating without a prior earnings recession
- Net income margins inflected higher in 2026 and are approaching 17%, the highest in over a decade
- US equity valuations relative to the rest of the world have reset to a six-year low, below the 10-year average
- PPI came in softer than expected, pulling rate hike expectations back across markets
- Fed and market pricing converge around one rate hike or none before year end

 

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