Ryan Mumy and Justin Greenhill look at how an energy shock, tighter global policy, and heavy AI spending are pulling markets in different directions. This episode covers energy, rates, big tech, hedge fund positioning, Brazil, South Korea, and commodities.
In this episode:
- Energy prices climbed after the conflict with Iran, but natural gas remains far below its early Russia-Ukraine spike
- More central banks are now hiking than cutting, with Brazil a notable exception
- China's sharp cut in crude imports, made possible by years of investment in solar, hydro, and electric vehicles
- Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Alphabet turning to the bond market as CapEx climbs and free cash flow rolls over
- Magnificent Seven at all-time highs while small caps, equal weight, and semiconductors lag
- Long-short hedge funds cutting net leverage as dispersion between market segments widens
- The 30-year Treasury above 5.5% for the first time since 2004, and why the 10-year/2-year spread tells a different story
- Brazil cutting rates by 25 basis points the same day the Fed hiked, with a presidential election on the horizon
- South Korean tech stocks rallying while their valuation multiples fall on surging earnings
- Where large speculators sit in copper, silver, and energy, and how much room remains for them to add